This year the Senate is on a knife-edge, with polls showing the Democrats having an increasing chance of taking back the upper chamber. To win back the Senate, the Democrats will need to win at least 3 seats to win the majority and not lose any incumbent Senators as well. To be sure of the majority the Democrats need to win 5 seats in case Donald Trump wins a second term and Mike Pence becomes the Senate President once again. *Denotes the incumbent in the race.
1. Colorado: Hickenlooper (D) V Gardner (R)* Colorado, once a Republican stronghold, flipped in the 2016 Presidential Election and this year many pundits and politicos believe this trend will continue. Governor John Hickenlooper, who briefly ran for President in the Democratic Primary, will be hoping that his 12 years of public office in the state will help him flip the state. The latest Public Policy Polling poll taken between 18th-19th August has Hickenlooper leading Gardner 51% to 42%.
2. Maine: Collins (R)* V Gideon (D) Come election day, Maine will have seen its most expensive and competitive Senate race in history. Since voting for Justice Kavanaugh’s confirmation, Senator Collins has faced a tough re-election campaign. In 2020 she will go up against Sara Gideon (D) a member of the Maine House of Representatives. The last Critical Insights Poll which was taken between July 28th and August 9th shows Gideon leading Collins 49% to 44%.
3. Montana: Bullock (D) V Daines (R)* A solidly Republican state, Montana may produce a significant surprise come election night when the results of the Senate race in the state is announced. This is down to outgoing Governor Steve Bullock who after a brief 2020 Presidential run jumped into the Senate race in the state and has electrified the race. The latest Emerson College poll taken between July 31st and August 2nd shows that Bullock still has work to with Steve Daines leading Steve Bullock 50% to 44%.
4. Alabama: Jones (D)* V Tuberville (R) Perhaps the GOP’s best hope of a gain in the Senate this cycle, many Republicans are confident of flipping this seat and greatly increasing their chances of retaining the Senate. Doug Jones won the seat in the 2017 Special Election against Roy Moore, however, this year Jones faces a much tougher challenge in former American Football Coach Tommy Tuberville. The latest Morning Consult Poll which was released on the 2nd August had Tuberville ahead of Jones 52% to 35%.
5. Iowa: Ernst (R)* V Greenfield (D) Along with currently battling with the aftermath of a damaging derecho storm, the state is also experiencing a must closer than expected senatorial race. Whilst many believed that Joni Ernst would have a relatively easy re-election campaign, Democratic Nominee Theresa Greenfield has proved to be a formidable opponent. The latest Public Policy Polling poll released the 14th August had Greenfield leading Ernst 48% to 45%.
6. Arizona: Kelly (D) V McSally (R)* In 2018 the Democrats managed to flip one of Arizona’s Senate seats, and in 2020 they will be aiming to make it a full house. Incumbent Martha McSally who was co-opted to the Senate in January 2019 following the retirement of Senator John Kyl will be facing former Astronaut Mark Kelly. Since both candidates won their respective primary, polls have consistently shown Kelly with a strong lead over the incumbent McSally. The latest Redfield and Wilton poll published on the 18th August showed Kelly leading McSally 53% to 34%.
This is our list of the 6 Senate races to watch on election night, what are yours?